Covers Chapters 9 and 10 –
Go to a source that allows you to assess recent exchange rate movements (such as Yahoo.finance) of JPY/USD trends over the past year (you can use the data you collected for Homework 1.4 for this purpose).
Go to cmegroup.com to obtain the current (making sure to include the date you select) futures price for the JPY and calculate (use the annual percentage formula) whether the JPY is currently trading at a (ANNUALIZED) discount or at a premium to the USD. Make sure to include the specific maturity date of the futures contract you select (try to find one with a maturity date of approximately one year from now). You can use the data you collected for Homework 2.1 for this purpose.
Question 1 – Compare the forecasts for the future movement of the JPY using a “Technical” forecasting approach to what would be predicted using a “Market” forecasting approach. How would you interpret what each type of these two forecasts tells you? Which do you thing is more accurate, and why?
Consider how your business would be exposed to exchange rate risk. Explain your exchange rate risk, both transactions risk and economic risk by answering the following questions.
Question 2 – Is your business subject to transaction exposure? Explain how and why/why not. Is your business subject to economic exposure? Explain how and why/why not. GIVE EXAMPLES. Overall, do you think that the value of your business would be favorably or unfavorably affected with the expected future movement of the JPY/USD exchange rate? Explain your rationale.
Question 3 – Go to your data collected earlier to assess historical exchange rate movements (Yahoo.finance works for this) of the JPY/USD. Consider how the dollar cash flows from your services may have changed each year if exchange rates changed over each of the last 3 years. Specifically, assume that your annual revenue will be 28 million (28,000,000) JPY and determine the value of that amount in dollars based on the exchange rate today, one year ago, two years ago, and three years ago. Does it appear that your dollar revenue would have changed significantly due to exchange rate movements had you been in business during the last three years? Show your calculations! Assume that you expect the JPY/USD will change over the next year by the same degree as it changed over the past year. Given the futures price of the JPY, and the percentage change of the JPY/USD over the past year, would it be wise to sell futures to hedge the GBP/USD that will be converted to dollars one year from now? Explain why or why not.