STAT 201 SEU Develop a three-day moving average and a forecast

1.The profit equation for John Billiard Supply company is given as follows:

  • Find selling price per unit, fixed cost and variable cost per unit.
  • If company sells 10 units, then find total expenses of the company?
  • If company sells 15 units, then what will be the total profit of the company?
  • In a Production Company, the materials and labor cost for making a product is $200 and the fixed cost per week is $2000. The selling price for each product is $300.
  • A manager is deciding whether or not to build a small facility. Demand is uncertain and can be either at a high or low level. If the manager chooses a small facility and demand is low, the payoff is $30. If the manager chooses a small facility and demand is high, the payoff is $10. On the other hand, if the manager chooses a large facility and demand is low, the payoff is -$20, but if demand is high, the payoff is $80.
  • The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand with probabilities of different demands:
  • Given the following gasoline data:
  • Number of students present in a class of STAT201 on different days of the week is given in the following table:
  • If company sells 200 units, find total revenue for the company.
  • How many products must be sold by the company per week to breakeven point?
  • Develop the decision table.
  • What would be the best decision based on the maximax criterion?
  • What would be the best decision based on Hurwicz’s criterion of realism using α = 0.6?

States of Nature

Demand

Alternatives

Low

Medium

High

Alternative A

80

120

140

Alternative B

70

90

100

Alternative C

30

60

120

Probability

0.4

0.3

0.3

What will be the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for this situation?

Quarter

Year 1

Year 2

1

95

105

2

85

95

3

105

115

4

100

120

  • Compute the seasonal index for each quarter.
  • Suppose we expect year 3 to have annual demand of 400.What is the forecast value for each quarter in year 3?

Day

Number of students present in the class

Sunday

20

Monday

30

Tuesday

20

Wednesday

50

  • Develop a three-day moving average for Thursday.
  • Develop a forecast of presents for Thursday using exponential smoothing with an alpha = 0.2.Assume that an initial forecast for Wednesday was 40.
 
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